ELECTRIC VEHICLES AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS
Tesla recently unveiled its “robotaxi,” a futuristic self-driving vehicle without a steering wheel or pedals, designed to function autonomously. Tesla also introduced other innovations, like a “robovan” and the Optimus humanoid robot. How will Tesla’s unveiling of autonomous vehicles and new technologies reshape competition in the global EV space, and what implications does this hold for U.S.-China relations in the context of technological leadership?
I. Introduction
Trade and industrial relations between the United States and China are marked by growing competition, especially in the technology sector. The electric vehicle (EV) industry has become a focal point of this dispute, as it represents the future of sustainable mobility, and also global technological and economic leadership. By investing heavily in EVs, China has dominated the global market, exporting large volumes to Europe and other countries, while taking advantage of its top-notch infrastructure and government subsidy policies. By 2023, in a clear demonstration of its rapid advance in the sector, the Chinese EV market represented 45% of global new vehicle sales. At the same time, Chinese manufacturers' dependence on the US for advanced chips and technologies, such as NVIDIA's semiconductors for autonomous systems, has created a strategic vulnerability, which the US has exploited through restrictions and sanctions to contain Chinese advances in sectors considered sensitive.
In this scenario, Tesla has come into play as a major player in the US strategy to compete with China in the EV sector. With its Gigafactory in Shanghai, Tesla has strengthened its presence in the Asian market and contributed to the development of the EV supply chain in China, a partnership that reveals the complex interdependence between the two countries. The company has driven technological innovation with the development of advanced battery and autonomous systems, which stand out in global competition against Chinese manufacturers such as BYD and NIO. The Chinese government's recent approval for the implementation of Tesla's autonomous driving system in the country highlights the attempt at cooperation in the midst of a conflictual relationship. The research question explores how these new Tesla technologies could fundamentally alter competition in the global EV market, heightening geopolitical and technological implications between the US and China and directly influencing industrial policies and global leadership strategies in the coming years.
The dynamic between the United States and China in the electric vehicle sector also reflects a wider competition in terms of industrial and innovation policies. The US administration has implemented “de-risking” strategies, with incentives for local production and restrictions on Chinese components and technologies, especially with regard to semiconductors and essential batteries for electric vehicles. China, for its part, is responding with a series of countermeasures, such as expanding its battery infrastructure and strengthening local manufacturers such as BYD and CATL, which are investing heavily in lithium iron phosphate (LFP) technologies. China plays a key role in battery production, which is essential for maintaining competitive prices and increasing its global market share. This scenario of mutual restrictions and subsidies creates an industrial “battlefield” in which each nation seeks to dominate the supply chain and set global standards for the future of autonomous and electric vehicles. The interaction between US and Chinese innovation policies could not only shape the electric vehicle industry, but also redefine the world economic order and the technological balance of power in the coming years.
II. The State of U.S.-China Relations in the EV Industry
The EV industry is a space that has rapidly been developing and that still has much more room to grow. In 2024, global sales of battery electric vehicles are projected to account for an estimated 16.2% of global passenger vehicle sales. Electric cars’ share of the overall car market increased from 4% in 2020 to 14% in 2022 and is projected to rise to 18% in 2024. Most of this growth is concentrated in China, Europe, and the United States. China currently dominates the EV industry with around 60% of global electric car sales. This dominance in EV production and infrastructure is apparent in the incredible success of numerous Chinese EV companies: BYD, NIO, XPeng, to name a few. Domestic Chinese EV companies have several competitive advantages relative to their American counterparts. The Chinese government has invested heavily in supporting the transition to green energy through electric vehicles, and domestic companies benefit from policies that support their development. Another major advantage is China’s large domestic market relative to that of the United States. In industries unrelated to the EV industry, such as tourism or entertainment, there exists a growing trend of Chinese consumers turning towards domestic consumption. Because the domestic market is large enough in size, a company can gain a strong foothold and become wildly successful without ever expanding internationally. Domestic Chinese companies also practice vertical integration and supply chain control, both of which help to lower costs and increase the feasibility of market expansion. By both manufacturing EVs and producing their batteries, rather than only manufacturing EVs and buying batteries from a supplier, these companies can reduce costs significantly and maintain quality control. Lastly, many of the domestic Chinese companies are relatively young and focused on developing EVs from the outset. Many U.S. automotive companies, such as General Motors and the Ford Motor Company, are much older and have worked solely on traditional internal combustion engine vehicles until recently. The younger Chinese companies are not burdened with needing to transition or split their resources between the two; they can simply focus on innovation in EV-specific technologies. EV-focused startups, such as Rivian and Lucid Motors, have cropped up in the U.S. in recent years but lack the competitive advantages of government support and supply chain control that Chinese companies benefit from.
In China, there are several key players in the EV industry, as mentioned above. In the U.S., however, Tesla holds approximately 50.9% of the EV market as of the last quarter of 2023. Tesla has built itself up to be the dominant player, but as more and more people are witnessing the incredible growth potential of the EV market, Tesla’s dominance is being challenged by both traditional automakers and newcomers. What has set Tesla apart from its competitors in the United States to this point has been its technological and strategic innovations. The company developed batteries with a longer battery life, increased charging efficiency, implemented remote software updates, and strategically placed Supercharger stations around the U.S. to build upon demand. In China, however, Tesla needed a different approach to succeed. When the company first entered the Chinese market, its strategy was to price its vehicles at a significant discount to its domestic Chinese competitors.
To do so, Tesla built a Gigafactory in Shanghai in order to manufacture locally. By avoiding high import tariffs, Tesla gained a price advantage that it used to undercut domestic EV automakers. This strategy was effective for a period of time, but as domestic rivals also rapidly innovated and lowered their costs, Tesla lost its competitive edge. The company now faces a similar problem in the United States as its American competitors are quickly gaining market share. In an attempt to stay competitive, in 2020, Tesla began construction of the Texas Gigafactory, designed to increase production capacity of specific vehicle models targeted towards specific, diverse market segments, such as the Model 3, Model Y, Semi, and Cybertruck in order to broaden its reach. The company has benefited from being the leader in the United States’ EV market thus far, but this dominance has proven to be a double-edged sword. Because Tesla is at the forefront of the EV revolution, they have become the target of intense media attention. Accidents involving Tesla’s autonomous driving vehicles have been widely publicized, skewing consumers’ perceptions of these technologies to be increasingly negative.
III. Tesla’s New Technologies and Their Strategic Impact
In recent years experts have predicted that Tesla’s new frontier will be grappling with the challenge of producing affordable electric vehicles, especially in light of increased competition from Chinese firms such as BYD which are beating it at the game of low-cost manufacturing. Electric vehicles are also struggling to catch on in the United States with. High interest rates have decreased demand for expensive EVs and firms such as Goldman Sachs note that Americans are unimpressed with EVs lower resale values and little technological advancement in charging technology. Musk’s strategy for affordable EVs which was supposed to be put in place by 2025 has now been canceled. Perhaps, then, it is unsurprising that Tesla has distinctly shifted its focus to autonomous vehicles, with Musk declaring on an earning’s call this July “The value of Tesla overwhelmingly is autonomy.” Tesla rolled out its Cybercab robotaxi, which it claims will only become more capable due to advancements in its artificial intelligence fueled training data.
Tesla envisions its robotaxis working as part of a complex business model that includes three main elements. First and foremost, “Selling the software to owners of Tesla's passenger EVs, licensing the software to other car manufacturers for a fee, through a ride-hailing network Tesla built in-house, which will allow Cybercabs to transport passengers at all hours of the day (like Uber, except completely driverless).” This will likely have positive effects on Tesla’s financials as software companies usually have a profit margin nearly 60% higher than Tesla’s current one as a hardware company. The Wall Street Journal estimated that Tesla would generate around $99 billion dollars in revenue this year, welcome news for investors.
Tesla’s robotaxi possesses capabilities that set it apart from many other autonomous vehicles Tesla employs "visual recognition plus end-to-end machine learning," while the vast majority of other competitors utilize "multi-sensor fusion and high-definition mapping. Tesla’s vehicles don’t need pre-mapped routes, rather they rely completely on the camera suite using a multi-step approach including sensors, radar, lidar, and cameras working together to create a sense of the environment the vehicle is in. Thai reduces costs as opposed to other autonomous taxis. Further, Tesla’s Robotaxi utilizes wireless charging. The design of the robotaxi consists of a two-seat car with no steering wheel and pedals and a butterfly-style door. Tesla intends to use the marketing tactic of a "shepherd with a flock of cars.”Autonomous cars can be used as Uber-like taxis when not being used by the owner, and people could set up fleets of the vehicles to rival ride-share companies.
IV. Implications for U.S.-China Relations
As described above, Tesla's proprietary technology is indeed impressive; if it can be realized, costs will undoubtedly plummet, thereby posing significant challenges to other automobile manufacturers. However, when these technologies will be implemented remains uncertain (Tesla has not disclosed technical details, and there are regulatory considerations regarding such technology). Analysts at Jefferies stated that Elon Musk has not provided "verifiable evidence" of Tesla's progress in autonomous driving technology. This "makes it difficult for us to assess the feasibility of the goals outlined by Musk at the conference, as there is currently no precedent for achieving higher levels of autonomous driving using a vision-only approach."
Secondly, many other brands have already made progress—for example, Pony.ai, which has gone public, and Baidu's Apollo Go, which is rapidly expanding into the market—have already established a significant market presence. Pony AI, backed filed for a U.S. initial public offering on Thursday. Baidu's Robotaxi business, Apollo Go, may soon break-even. Chinese internet company Baidu BIDU saw a 2.55% increase and” is seeking to roll out its driverless ride-hailing service overseas in an effort to extend its competitive advantage outside China.” If Tesla's new technology can be successfully implemented and is sufficiently superior to offerings from other brands at the time of deployment, Tesla can still penetrate the Chinese market even if it is already occupied. However, that’s only assuming that other brand’s technological innovation remains stagnant China’s response to Tesla has been predictable, with autonomous vehicle companies announcing that they will increase the pace of development of new technology The Chairman of XPeng Motors stated on Weibo that the company will "accelerate the pace of XPeng's Robotaxi business." Pony.ai also released the advertisement below in blue.
U.S. autonomous vehicles companies take the lead on two key metrics: funding and technological prowess. A Chinese autonomous vehicle expert declared, “Everybody is behind Waymo and Cruise,”; the former’s fleet of cars has a combined mileage greater than all Chinese autonomous vehicles and the latter has amassed $6.2 billion in investment. Across the entire autonomous vehicle industry, American firms have attracted $11.9 billion in investment since 2014 as compared to $4.4 billion in Chinese firms. However, autonomous vehicles may actually be integrated into Chinese society faster. Chinese government agencies, regulatory frameworks, and private actors have all jumped on board the single-minded goal of getting autonomous vehicles on the road. In the United States where changing the regulatory framework is a process slowed down by bureaucracy and litigation, the pace of creating an environment where autonomous vehicles can thrive has been much slower. Portions of cities such as Beijing’s E-Town have been transformed to allow for autonomous vehicle testing, with some lanes on the road being reserved purely for that purpose, known as “National Test Roads.” City plans have been redesigned to account for autonomous vehicles, pedestrian traffic rules and regulations have been adapted, sensors have been placed along the roads to support AVs, and the company's potential legal risk for damage incurred to state or private property (or people) has been mitigated.
Private technology firms have rallied to the cause by making sure their products can be easily interoperable with autonomous vehicles. For instance, “Mobile-network operators, such as China Mobile, and telecoms-equipment manufacturers, like Huawei, are building technology into their systems which may in time help cars along the road. Huawei wants its zippy 5G mobile antennas to take on a large part of the processing required to run an AV.” This is creating an entirely new market for integrated autonomous vehicles which is likely to be almost $14 billion by 2025. In addition, demand for autonomous vehicles among the Chinese citizenry is huge (around two trillion by 2040), promising future profits. The Chinese state has also thrown itself behind the goal of supporting autonomous vehicle companies, pledging to provide $220 billion by 2050 to integrate autonomous vehicles with existing technology and infrastructure like 5G networks and cloud-computing. Accelerating Chinese-American competition in the realm of autonomous vehicle technology will certainly have an impact on both country’s firms. The United States government banned American companies from integrating certain Chinese software into its autonomous vehicles and from supplying eight Chinese companies that might be tied to sensitive technologies in the autonomous vehicles industry. In addition, many Chinese autonomous vehicle companies have been founded in America, raising fears that they’ll be caught in the crossfire.
V. Challenges and Future Directions
Despite Tesla’s relative success in establishing its dominance in the United States’ EV market, the company still faces many challenges as it seeks to implement its autonomous technology in the United States and China. In the U.S., the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) and other regulatory bodies have established stringent guidelines to ensure the safety of autonomous vehicles (AVs). Thus far, Tesla’s autonomous technology has relied heavily on a vision-based system (called Tesla Vision) that utilizes cameras and vision processing software to execute its autopilot capabilities. The company does not use more precise radar or LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) sensing systems, citing the additional cost and complexities associated with incorporating and processing the extra sensors. The NHTSA does not currently require LiDAR in autonomous vehicles, but a recent mandate requiring automatic emergency braking systems in all new light vehicles by 2029 is an indication that a radar and/or LiDAR mandate is likely to come in the future.
Thus, whether Tesla will be able to fully implement its Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology in the years ahead is dependent on its incorporation of more complex and precise sensing systems; otherwise, the company’s current camera-based approach places its FSD capabilities in a gray zone. Tesla has aggressively deployed beta versions of its FSD, prompting scrutiny as regulators are requiring more transparency and proof of safety. The U.S. government also seeks more data from Tesla to monitor accidents involving its AV technology, which could delay wider adoption. In China, the regulatory environment is even more complex. China has heavily invested in AV technologies like LiDAR and supports firms through industrial policies and subsidies. Tesla’s decision to forgo LiDAR, which Chinese regulators view as essential for safety, may limit its market share in China as many Chinese AV companies have incorporated radar and LiDAR in their vehicles. There are also growing concerns within China over data security, which could create further regulatory hurdles for the American-founded Tesla collecting vast amounts of driving data to train its models.
Tesla’s camera-based approach limits the company’s technological capabilities in comparison to its American and Chinese competitors. A camera-based approach faces significant limitations, particularly in challenging environmental conditions. Cameras can be less reliable in poor visibility situations like fog, heavy rain, or darkness. By contrast, LiDAR offers precise distance measurement by bouncing laser beams off surrounding objects. It can create a high-resolution 3D map of the environment, even in conditions where cameras might fail. Waymo, an American competitor, and multiple Chinese companies, such as XPeng and NIO, have implemented radar and LiDAR technologies. Tesla argues that the sheer volume of driving data collected from its vehicles gives it an edge in training its algorithms. However, the challenge remains for Tesla to overcome the inherent limitations of camera-based systems, especially as regulatory authorities increasingly demand near-perfect reliability from autonomous vehicles.
Tesla’s heavy emphasis on developing the autonomous vehicle space carries broader implications for the EV industry, as its innovations have the potential to accelerate the global transition to autonomous mobility. IDC, a market research organization, predicts that in 2025, the global sales scale of networked vehicles will be 78.3 million, with a five-year compound growth rate of 11.5%. In 2026, the global sales scale of self-driving vehicles will be 89.3 million, and the five-year compound growth rate will reach 14.8%. Goldman Sachs forecasts autonomous vehicle penetration to grow in many major economies, particularly in China, Europe, Japan, and the United States. Tesla also has the potential to majorly disrupt the ride-sharing market and affect employment, as the company’s recently revealed autonomous robotaxi, the Cybercab, is to be priced under $30,000 to be affordable for consumers. Taxi companies that incorporate the Cybercab into their fleet of vehicles will no longer have to employ drivers, lowering costs and increasing profits. Many of Tesla’s EV industry peers are accelerating their autonomous processes. Gong Xin, CEO of CaoCao Inc., a Chinese ride-hailing service, revealed that within two years, he aims to launch the company’s own fully customized robotaxi model. Waymo is also expected to accelerate its rollout following Tesla’s announcement and has already deployed nearly 1,000 vehicles with more than $5 billion invested in the platform.
A challenge that is continually faced by American and Chinese AV companies alike is public perception and acceptance of autonomous mobility. A McKinsey & Company report in 2021 found that only about 26 percent of American consumers would willingly switch to an autonomous vehicle. Concerns over the viability and safety of Tesla’s self-driving system continue to cast a shadow over its ambitious plans. Bryant Walker Smith, a University of South Carolina law professor specializing in autonomous vehicles said, “Tesla has been giving us this demo every year, and it’s not reassuring us.” Nicholas Mersch, a portfolio manager at Purpose Investments, noted that Musk’s decision is a high-stakes gamble that could pay off if Tesla successfully cracks the code for autonomous driving. However, Musk claims that self-driving cars could potentially be: "10 to 20 to 30 times safer than a human.” Thus, if Tesla is able to succeed in the controversial space of autonomous mobility, it has the potential to greatly shape public acceptance in a positive direction, making it easier to promote a global transition.
Although future prospects for the autonomous vehicle market are bright, there exist risks of market fragmentation as countries adopt different standards, both technical and regulatory. The European Union issued the TBT Circular G/TBT/N/EU/884, aiming at establishing a unified approval procedure and technical specifications for the automatic driving system of fully autonomous vehicles. However, it does not mention the site selection scope of the test site, which may give rise to future complications: cars exported from China to the EU will have to go to the EU for road testing, greatly increasing both the cost of road testing for Chinese AV companies exporting to the EU and the number of obstacles for vehicles to be approved. Differences in regulation across countries will also increase compliance costs and hinder market expansion. In the United Kingdom, a user-in-charge is not responsible for the way in which a vehicle is driven if the user-in-charge is not controlling it at the time of an act that would constitute an offense. But in the United States, it depends. The Canadian province of British Columbia restricts people from both driving and using features of autonomous vehicles rated Level 3 (L3) or higher, as defined by the Society of Automotive Engineers. The Indian Union Minister of Road Transport and Highways, Nitin Gadkari, has said that he will never allow driverless cars in India, as the introduction of autonomous vehicles in the country will leave "up to 8 million drivers" unemployed. International tariffs also act as barriers to the further development of the EV industry. According to the Office of the US Trade Representative, from September 27th, 2024, the tariff rate of electric vehicles made in China will be raised to 100%, the tariff rate of solar batteries will be raised to 50%, and the tariff rate of electric vehicle batteries, key minerals, steel, aluminum, masks and shore container cranes will be raised to 25%, including semiconductor chips.
VI. Conclusion
The recent technological advancements by Tesla represent an undeniably momentous turning point in the global EV market, particularly in autonomous vehicles such as the Cybercab. These innovations, while also extremely important for their fields, are also decisive for the competition between the US and China. Specifically, Tesla's increasingly aggressive push into the EV space places further pressure on China to accelerate its domestic leaders (such as BYD), thereby intensifying the technological rivalry between the two nations.,, Two competing priorities —1) Stringent regulatory measures in the US, and 2) China's steadfast support for lightning-fast development— demonstrate how Tesla's innovations have, in reality, escalated the geopolitical and economical competition.
It is arguable that Tesla's ambitions have the potential to reshape the global EV market, simultaneously heightening the industrial/economical and geopolitical competition between the US and China. While Tesla is strongly championing US leadership in innovation through its efforts, it is also compelling China to respond with increased investments in its own infrastructure and technology. Consequently, the global EV market is shifting towards a divided ecosystem, in which each country seeks to dominate certain key aspects of automotive technology.,,
Future research should examine how other global EV players are traversing this increasingly murkier competitive landscape. These regions (Japan and Europe, for instance), while bearing distinct priorities, may either contribute to the escalation or deescalation of the tensions, potentially further fragmenting the market. Additionally, continuing to monitor the evolution of the regulatory frameworks for EVs in both the US and China is necessary to evaluate the impact of each country's national strategies and policies on its economies and the broader economic/geopolitical dispute.
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