NUCLEAR ARMS AND THE UKRAINE/RUSSIA CONFLICT
1. Introduction
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine, beginning in early 2022, has rippled deeply into the international community. Among other economic and social concerns, global superpowers are taking note of Vladimir Putin’s stance on armed nuclear warfare. Although Putin has stressed that Russia does not require nuclear weapons to claim victory over Ukraine, the prospect of Ukraine utilizing Western military technology such as longer-ranged weapons or launching a deadly counteroffensive spurs the incentive for Putin to “aim a nuclear pistol at our Western adversaries,” as Kremlin-connected foreign policy expert Sergei Karaganov argued at a June 2024 forum in St. Petersburg. Yet threats of escalation alarm the United States and China, both of which have issued warnings against the use of nuclear weapons in the conflict. As a major adversary of Russia, the United States is monitoring the situation closely and updating its nuclear strategy in concert with NATO to prepare for any attack. On the other hand, China’s close relationship with Russia has limited its denunciation of the conflict, but the country continues to uphold its no-first-use policy regarding nuclear weapons. The possibility of nuclear deployment not only heightens the risks for Ukraine but also destabilizes global security, forcing major powers to reconsider their strategies in supporting Ukraine’s defense.
2. Background on the Ukraine/Russia Conflict
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, was only the latest development in a turbulent conflict between the two countries that dates back to Ukraine's independence and the fall of the Soviet Union. Ever since Russia annexed the Crimean Peninsula in 2014, analysts have warned that Russia may extend its territorial claims over the former Soviet republic in the future. Many see this invasion as the manifestation of President Putin's dream to reestablish the Soviet Union - or at least its former glory, as President Putin referred to the collapse of the USSR as "the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century". Ukraine has long been divided between pro-Western and pro-Russian factions, as the Western part favored the former, forming closer relations with the EU and NATO, while the latter sought to keep close ties with Russia. The Russian-speaking Donbas region of the country became a focal point of the 2022 war as well, effectively justifying the invasion by conducting a referendum, declaring overwhelming intent to become a part of Russia. Based on the annexation of Crimea and the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia aims to set back any development Ukraine is making in an attempt to join Western alliances, as the development of diplomatic talks about Ukraine's EU and NATO membership in 2014 and 2022 both triggered violent retaliation from Russia, afraid to lose geopolitical influence and prestige.
3. Link to Nuclear Prolif and Nuclear Arms in the War
Putin has threatened the use of nuclear weapons on multiple occasions throughout the invasion. Part of the reason why Western allies are so cautious about the types of weaponry they are willing to provide for Ukraine is the threat of nuclear escalation. A major recent development suggests that Russia might change its existing nuclear policy, which currently rejects using nuclear weapons against a state that does not possess any, to a nuclear policy that allows the proliferation of these weapons if a nuclear ally backs the non-nuclear state. This policy change would be the result of Ukraine's negotiations with Western allies, particularly with the United States, which aim to acquire long-range missiles to attack Russian military sites inside Russia. China has recently warned Russia against the deployment of nuclear weapons, and the wider international community has also expressed concern. Ukraine considers Russia's 'nuclear blackmail' as the country's last resort in light of mounting Russian casualties, economic and political isolation, and the decline of living conditions causing popular dissent at home. The prospect of Russia proliferating tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine has effectively left not only Russia and Ukraine but also Western allies in a stalemate.
4. China's attitude and response to the escalation of the risk of nuclear war arising from the Russian-Ukrainian conflict
Since its first successful test of an atomic bomb in 1964, China has upheld the principle of “no first use of nuclear weapons” until now. Countries around the world have consistently emphasized the defensive nature of nuclear weapons, believing that nuclear weapons should be used as the last resort to maintain national security. In recent years, as the international situation has changed, likely, China has gradually expanded its nuclear forces in response to the rising risk of nuclear war risks. However, China remains unequivocally opposed to a global nuclear arms race, and even more so to the use of nuclear weapons as a bargaining chip in international politics. As a result of the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war, China has remained relatively cautious in its official stance toward Russia's revised nuclear policy and declarations of nuclear weapons use, although China’s direct condemnation of Russia has been limited due to the increasingly close cooperative relationship between China and Russia. For its part, China has repeatedly reiterated in various channels that nuclear weapons should not be used and nuclear war must not be fought, and has called on all sides to take practical action to reduce tensions.
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The U.S. and China are still far from a direct nuclear confrontation, Furthermore, with the development of China's nuclear forces, an unintentional escalation of U.S.-China conventional war into a nuclear war becomes less and less likely. China's nuclear forces and nuclear command, control, and communication (NC3) system are capable of surviving an unintentional U.S. conventional strike with a minimum level of emergency command and communication capability to accomplish a nuclear retaliation of sufficient power. In addition, China's NC3 is highly centralized, focusing on “passive control”, with only the Central Military Commission authorized to use nuclear weapons, making it virtually impossible to delegate command authority. Moreover, China does not have tactical nuclear weapons and is therefore not in a position to engage in a limited escalation of war through the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons, as Russia has claimed - nuclear weapons would be a no-return endgame for China.
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China is also an active participant in global denuclearization. According to unofficial sources, in June this year, China and the United States resumed their semi-official nuclear weapons negotiations, demonstrating China's positive stance in the international nuclear disarmament arena. According to China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, at the eleventh Review Conference of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, China submitted a working paper on mutual no-first-use of nuclear weapons. On October 15 this year, the five nuclear-weapon states - Russia, China, the United States, the United Kingdom, and France - will hold a regular meeting of the UN General Assembly's First Committee (Disarmament and International Security Committee) in New York. China has recently taken over as the coordinator to organize the meeting, and it is reasonable to believe that China will play a key role in controlling the risk of nuclear war and promoting the peace process in today's uncertain world.
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5. U.S. Attitudes and Responses to the Escalating Risk of Nuclear War Arising from the Russia-Ukraine Conflict
U.S. relations with Russia have deteriorated dramatically since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war. The U.S. has consistently denounced Russia's nuclear threat as “reckless and irresponsible” in recent years, fully committing to support Ukraine with its NATO allies. Russia now relies on a strategy of “nuclear ambiguity” and often veiled nuclear threats. In June 2024, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated that NATO was in the process of negotiating internally to deploy more nuclear weapons. Meanwhile, the U.S. and its NATO allies have stepped up nuclear exercises called “Resolute Noon” to demonstrate their ability to respond to the Russian threat. The U.S. has reportedly updated its clandestine nuclear strategy, reassessing the nuclear capabilities of several countries, including China, Russia, and North Korea, and the need to prepare for a “collaborative nuclear confrontation”. However, the close relationship between China and Russia in recent years has not led to extensive military cooperation, and the relationship between China and North Korea, despite the China-North Korea Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation, and Mutual Assistance, has had little military interaction in recent years, so it is doubtful that such a “China-North Korea-Russia nuclear alliance” exists or will emerge.
Within the U.S., nuclear weapons are seen as the last safeguard for national security for the world's major powers, and because of their detachment from people's everyday lives, changes in nuclear policy are often passed quickly and without partisan controversy. However, the United States also faces difficulties in updating and maintaining its own nuclear weapons stockpile. Nuclear weapons systems inherited from the Cold War are no longer adequate to meet the demands of modern warfare, and the financial and human resources needed to build and maintain new nuclear facilities have become particularly scarce in the current military-industrial complex. In addition, environmental issues have caused resistance to the construction of new nuclear facilities. Effectively addressing growing nuclear demands has thus emerged as a major challenge for the U.S.
It is worth noting that the U.S. continues to send positive signals about limiting the use of nuclear weapons and global nuclear disarmament. In its 2022 Nuclear Posture Review, the Biden administration declared that it would consider the use of nuclear weapons only “in extreme circumstances to defend the vital interests of the United States or its allies and partners”. Such a statement is in fact similar to China's “no first use of nuclear weapons”. More recently, President Biden, in congratulating Nobel Peace Prize winner Japan's Atomic and Hydrogen Bombing Victims' Association, emphasized that “we must continue to move toward a world free of the threat of nuclear weapons.” Biden also indicated that the U.S. is willing to negotiate without preconditions with nuclear-armed states such as Russia, China, and North Korea.​
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